804 Forty Arpent Rd

Thibodaux, LA 70301

$200,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,009 sqft · Built 2005 · Manufactured · Active · 190 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,510/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $-12/mo
• Annual: $-148/yr
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.26%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-148/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (24.5% below list).
• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $151k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#2 in LA, #723 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment F.
• Lafourche Parish (other): math 31% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #22 of 98 in LA (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 513 active listings in the ZIP; 319 units permitted in Lafourche Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $200k implies a 471% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.8% in Thibodaux — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.