804 Forty Arpent Rd · Thibodaux, LA 70301

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,009 sqft · Manufactured · 190 Days on market

Built 2005 1.46 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This just-under-1.5-acre property offers a fantastic opportunity for investors or buyers looking for an affordable project. The front mobile home features 3 bedrooms and 2 baths and is livable but ready for some updates. There’s also a large detached carport and a storage shed already converted into a functional home office. Utilities are in place for the front home, making it easy to get started. Toward the back of the property sits a second mobile home that has been taken down to the studs—ready for a full interior remodel and your creative vision. With plenty of space to work with, there’s potential to add additional homes for rental income (with proper approvals). A sh

Key facts

• Privacy
• Detached carport
• Electric gate

Tags

• DETACHED CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED
• FUNCTIONAL HOME OFFICE
• FULL INTERIOR REMODEL
• ELECTRIC GATE
• PRIVACY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-148/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (24.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.8% in Thibodaux — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#2 in LA, #723 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment F.
• Lafourche Parish (other): math 31% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #22 of 98 in LA (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 513 active listings in the ZIP; 319 units permitted in Lafourche Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $200k implies a 471% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,971 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.26%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-33,430
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-31,090
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70301

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 513
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,510 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $874/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $-12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,525

Max offer price $197,828

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $200,000 Active 190 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 189 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 188 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 187 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 186 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 184 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 183 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 181 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 180 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $200,000 Active 179 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 178 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $200,000 Active 175 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 174 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 173 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 172 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 171 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $200,000 Active 170 DOM
18. 2025-12-11
    listed $200,000 Active
19. 2025-12-11
    listed $200,000 Active
20. 2025-11-17
    status Pending
21. 2025-11-17
    status Pending
22. 2025-04-09
    listed $100,000 Active
23. 2025-04-09
    listed $100,000 Active
24. 2025-04-08
    listed $130,000 Active
25. 2025-04-08
    listed $130,000 Active
26. 2019-08-23
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $874 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,100 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$226/yr (+$19/mo · 25.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,117
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$874
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,449
• − Management: −$1,449
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,677
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$883
• After-tax cash flow: $735/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lafourche Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200900
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -43.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $49,703
• Composite: 34.4/100
• National rank: #5205
• State rank: #22 of 98 in LA

Livability — Thibodaux

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #723

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lafourche Parish · 50,095 people
• City population: 50,095
• Metro: Houma-Thibodaux, LA
• Population (ZIP): 50,095
• Household income: $58,394
• Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1513.0

Population outlook (Lafourche County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 102,122 people
• By 2030: 103,361 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 104,401 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 102,795 · +0.7%
• By 2075: 95,599 · -6.4%
• By 2100: 82,303 · -19.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 18% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lafourche

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.1) · D 18.4% · R 80.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.1pp toward R · 2008: -46.0pp · 2024: -62.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.1 2020: R+60.3 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.5 2008: R+46.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.35%
• Current HPI: 124.5559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Houma-Thibodaux, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+471.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-11 Listed $200,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-12-11 Listed $200,000 GBRMLS
• 2025-11-17 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2025-11-17 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2025-04-09 Listed $100,000 GBRMLS
• 2025-04-09 Listed $100,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-04-08 Listed $130,000 GBRMLS
• 2025-04-08 Listed $130,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2019-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $874 · +108.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.