409 N 169 Hwy

Smithville, MO 64089

$230,000F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,200/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$267
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $-525/mo
• Annual: $-6,303/yr
• Cap rate: 3.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.79%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 0.52%
• Cash to close: $64,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-525 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $137k (40.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (47.8% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $120k (47.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#230 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Smithville R-II (suburban): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #20 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 341 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.