409 N 169 Hwy · Smithville, MO 64089

$230,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1973 0.30 ac lot $208/sqft · 24% above area Est $279k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 bed/1.5 bath home with a 2 car garage has been lovingly cared for with thoughtful and tasteful design updates that include fresh and NEW two-toned paint throughout, NEW flooring, NEW lighting and NEW plumbing fixtures, NEW garbage disposal. Owners have also taken care of essential upgrades for the home with a roof (2022) and HVAC (2020), newer windows and updated electrical to provide the new owner with peace of mind for years to come. This home is move in ready, just bring your personal touches. The oversized, flat and fenced back yard with deck and fire pit is ready for a summer of relaxing and enjoying indoor/outdoor living. You will find a variety of local dining and recreation spots nearby with Smithville lake, trails and campgrounds.

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1973

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-525 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $137k (40.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (47.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (47.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#230 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Smithville R-II (suburban): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #20 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 341 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $120,000 (47.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.79%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 16.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,286
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: -17.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
501 Maple Ave	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,075 (-3%)	12mo	$239,999	$223	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-70,778
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.63×
• Total profit: $-104,927
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64089

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 16.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,056/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $-525

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,865

Max offer price $137,208

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
206 W Main St Apt A Smithville, MO	2.0	1.0	948	$1,200	$1.27	4d	1	0.87mi
213 W Main St Unit A Smithville, MO	2.0	1.0	948	$1,200	$1.27	4d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 756-char remark

   Show marketing remark (756 chars)

   This 3 bed/1.5 bath home with a 2 car garage has been lovingly cared for with thoughtful and tasteful design updates that include fresh and NEW two-toned paint throughout, NEW flooring, NEW lighting and NEW plumbing fixtures, NEW garbage disposal. Owners have also taken care of essential upgrades for the home with a roof (2022) and HVAC (2020), newer windows and updated electrical to provide the new owner with peace of mind for years to come. This home is move in ready, just bring your personal touches. The oversized, flat and fenced back yard with deck and fire pit is ready for a summer of relaxing and enjoying indoor/outdoor living. You will find a variety of local dining and recreation spots nearby with Smithville lake, trails and campgrounds.

2. 2026-05-14
   listed $230,000 Active 756-char remark

   Show marketing remark (756 chars)

   This 3 bed/1.5 bath home with a 2 car garage has been lovingly cared for with thoughtful and tasteful design updates that include fresh and NEW two-toned paint throughout, NEW flooring, NEW lighting and NEW plumbing fixtures, NEW garbage disposal. Owners have also taken care of essential upgrades for the home with a roof (2022) and HVAC (2020), newer windows and updated electrical to provide the new owner with peace of mind for years to come. This home is move in ready, just bring your personal touches. The oversized, flat and fenced back yard with deck and fire pit is ready for a summer of relaxing and enjoying indoor/outdoor living. You will find a variety of local dining and recreation spots nearby with Smithville lake, trails and campgrounds.

3. 2026-04-22
   historical $230,000 756-char remark

   Show marketing remark (756 chars)

   This 3 bed/1.5 bath home with a 2 car garage has been lovingly cared for with thoughtful and tasteful design updates that include fresh and NEW two-toned paint throughout, NEW flooring, NEW lighting and NEW plumbing fixtures, NEW garbage disposal. Owners have also taken care of essential upgrades for the home with a roof (2022) and HVAC (2020), newer windows and updated electrical to provide the new owner with peace of mind for years to come. This home is move in ready, just bring your personal touches. The oversized, flat and fenced back yard with deck and fire pit is ready for a summer of relaxing and enjoying indoor/outdoor living. You will find a variety of local dining and recreation spots nearby with Smithville lake, trails and campgrounds.

4. 2022-04-11
   soldstatus
5. 2022-04-08
   soldstatus Closed 194-char remark

   Show marketing remark (194 chars)

   Just five minutes from Smithville Lake and golf course. Raised ranch with three bedrooms and a non conforming fourth in the basement. Extra storage and shelves in basement. Flat fenced backyard.

6. 2022-02-28
   status Pending 194-char remark

   Show marketing remark (194 chars)

   Just five minutes from Smithville Lake and golf course. Raised ranch with three bedrooms and a non conforming fourth in the basement. Extra storage and shelves in basement. Flat fenced backyard.

7. 2022-02-27
   price $184,999 194-char remark

   Show marketing remark (194 chars)

   Just five minutes from Smithville Lake and golf course. Raised ranch with three bedrooms and a non conforming fourth in the basement. Extra storage and shelves in basement. Flat fenced backyard.

8. 2022-02-26
   price $195,000 194-char remark

   Show marketing remark (194 chars)

   Just five minutes from Smithville Lake and golf course. Raised ranch with three bedrooms and a non conforming fourth in the basement. Extra storage and shelves in basement. Flat fenced backyard.

9. 2022-02-18
   listed $215,000 Active 194-char remark

   Show marketing remark (194 chars)

   Just five minutes from Smithville Lake and golf course. Raised ranch with three bedrooms and a non conforming fourth in the basement. Extra storage and shelves in basement. Flat fenced backyard.

10. 2020-09-25
    soldstatus
11. 2004-07-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,056 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,231 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: +$175/yr (+$15/mo · 8.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$2,056
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,152
• − Management: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$10,684
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,564
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,739/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Smithville R-II
• NCES district ID: 2928410
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $74,017
• Composite: 47.98/100
• National rank: #2202
• State rank: #20 of 324 in MO

Livability — Smithville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #230
• US rank: #11187

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Smithville, MO
• Population (ZIP): 14,060

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 266,022 people
• By 2030: 280,057 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 306,153 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 328,630 · +23.5%
• By 2075: 375,182 · +41.0%
• By 2100: 392,861 · +47.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.6) · D 46.4% · R 52.0% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -0.7pp · 2024: -5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.6 2020: R+4.1 2016: R+11.1 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.29%
• Current HPI: 246.8707
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+7.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Listed $230,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Coming Soon $230,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-04-08 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-28 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-27 Price Changed $184,999 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-26 Price Changed $195,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-18 Listed $215,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,056 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.