201 Shore Rd

Greenwich, CT 06830

$2,350,000D

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,598 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Active · 245 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,993/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$12,324
• Tax + insurance: −$2,052
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,259
• Net cashflow: $-9,641/mo
• Annual: $-115,693/yr
• Cap rate: 1.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.58%
• DSCR: 0.22
• 1% rule: 0.26%
• Cash to close: $658,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $2.35M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10k ($-116k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $647k (72.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $599k (74.5% below list).
• It's been on market 245 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.07M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $599k (74.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $178k of equity ($16k loan paydown + $162k appreciation (6.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#23 in CT, #1,655 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• Greenwich School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #12 of 153 in CT (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 127 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 7 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $149k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $525k; list at $2.35M implies a 348% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$285k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.4% vs local median 1.1% in Greenwich — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• At $5,993/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($147k/yr) (locally 1088% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 245 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 74% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.