19911 State Route 165 E

Carbonado, WA 98323

$565,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,320 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Pending · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,029/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,963
• Tax + insurance: −$773
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-2,132/mo
• Annual: $-25,590/yr
• Cap rate: 1.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.18%
• DSCR: 0.28
• 1% rule: 0.36%
• Cash to close: $158,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $565k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-26k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (66.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (64.1% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($548k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $188k (66.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $60k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $56k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#400 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Carbonado School District (rural): math 70% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #11 of 291 in WA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Carbonado Historical School 19 (180 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $162k; list at $565k implies a 248% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$97k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 67% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.