19911 State Route 165 E · Carbonado, WA 98323

$565,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1997 14 ac lot $244/sqft · 20% below area Est $711k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.8/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

13+ acre wooded hillside property with strong value-add potential. Private setting with expansive land offers opportunities for renovation, expansion, or long-term hold. Existing home features radiant heat and a large deck, providing a solid starting point for improvements. Ideal for investors seeking acreage, privacy, and upside through light-to-moderate rehab.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Expansive land
• Radiant heat

Tags

• WOODED HILLSIDE PROPERTY
• PRIVATE SETTING
• EXPANSIVE LAND
• RADIANT HEAT
• LARGE DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 13.88 acres
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Propane energy source; Water catchment system (see remarks); Septic tank
• Home design: Detached single-family residence; Two-story style; Main-level entry
• Construction: Built in 2003 (effective year); Wood construction; Metal roof; House structure
• Exterior features: Wood exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on second level (no eating area specified)
• Bedrooms: 4 total bedrooms — 3 on main level, 1 on upper level
• Flooring: Concrete; Stone; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms — 1 on main level, 1 on upper level
• Heating & cooling: Radiant heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Fireplace; French doors; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Utility room on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $565k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-26k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (66.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (64.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (66.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#400 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Carbonado School District (rural): math 70% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #11 of 291 in WA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Carbonado Historical School 19 (180 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $60k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $56k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$97k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($548k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $162k; list at $565k implies a 248% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $188,286 (66.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 67% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.36% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.18%
• DSCR: 0.28
• GRM: 23.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $710,628
• List price: $565,000
• Delta: -20.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
381 Coal Ave	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,482 (+7%)	8mo	$715,000	$288	51
320 Coal Ave	0.67mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,048 (-12%)	0mo	$515,000	$251	42
240 Pershing Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (-14%)	8mo	$360,000	$180	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $171,821
• Equity at exit: $508,997

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.87×
• Total profit: $612,646
• Equity at exit: $1,097,671

Cash invested: $158,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98323

• Home prices YoY: 31.4%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 23.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,029 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,963
• Tax from tax record: −$537 /mo · $6,445/yr
• Insurance: −$235
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-2,132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,728

Max offer price $188,286

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,813	-5% $-1,973	+0% $-2,132	+5% $-2,292	+10% $-2,452
Rent	-10% $-2,293	-5% $-2,213	+0% $-2,132	+5% $-2,052	+10% $-1,972
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,848	-0.5pp $-1,989	base $-2,132	+0.5pp $-2,279	+1.0pp $-2,428

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $141,250
• Closing costs: $16,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $565,000 Pending 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $565,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $565,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $565,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $565,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $565,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-05-18
   price $565,000
8. 2026-04-30
   listed $599,000 Active
9. 2014-12-05
   soldstatus $162,500 Sold
10. 2014-11-20
    status Pending
11. 2014-11-18
    listed $179,900 Active
12. 2001-03-15
    soldstatus $186,500
13. 2001-02-07
    listed $192,500
14. 1995-08-21
    soldstatus $72,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,445 · $537/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,445 · $537/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥83°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,349
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,649
• − Property taxes: −$6,445
• − Insurance: −$2,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,948
• − Management: −$1,948
• − Depreciation: −$16,436
• Taxable loss: −$36,903
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,857
• After-tax cash flow: $-16,733/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carbonado School District
• NCES district ID: 5300870
• Math proficiency: 70% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 80% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,489
• Composite: 66.06/100
• National rank: #964
• State rank: #11 of 291 in WA

Livability — Carbonado

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #400
• US rank: #15975

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 712

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 14% Romanian 4% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 77.84%
• Current HPI: 325.81
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+679.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $565,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listed $599,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-05 Sold (MLS) $162,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-20 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-18 Listed $179,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-03-15 Sold (MLS) $186,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-02-07 Listed $192,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $72,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $6,445 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.