16509 Patricia Ave

Montague, CA 96064

$128,900C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,476 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Active · 309 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,250/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax + insurance: −$153
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $159/mo
• Annual: $1,907/yr
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.28%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $36,092

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $159 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (3.0% below list).
• It's been on market 309 days — a 12% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $891 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#577 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: crime D+, schools D, employment D.
• Yreka Union High (town): math 25% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #630 of 1,400 in CA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 50 units permitted in Siskiyou County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Siskiyou County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 309 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.