16509 Patricia Ave · Montague, CA 96064

$128,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,476 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 309 Days on market

Built 1968 0.80 ac lot ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This REO property is a single family residence with an average condition and built as follow: 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom, with approximately GLA of 1,476 Sq Ft and lot size of 0.8 acres, front patio, and "Uper Deck" on the back side, and Shed. NOTE: The accuracy of the information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed, is subject to change and should be independently verified.

Key facts

• Upper deck
• Front patio
• Shed

Tags

• FRONT PATIO
• UPPER DECK
• SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family residential; 2 stories
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Sloped lot

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove heating
• Interior features: Carpet and vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $159 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (3.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#577 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: crime D+, schools D, employment D.
• Yreka Union High (town): math 25% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #630 of 1,400 in CA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 50 units permitted in Siskiyou County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $891 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Siskiyou County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 309 days — a 12% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,432 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 309 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.28%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-10,788
• Equity at exit: $19,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $3,557
• Equity at exit: $11,145

Cash invested: $36,092 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96064

• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,187/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,049

Max offer price $128,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,225
• Closing costs: $3,867
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $128,900 Active 309 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $128,900 Active 308 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $128,900 Active 307 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $128,900 Active 306 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $128,900 Active 305 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $128,900 Active 303 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $128,900 Active 302 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $128,900 Active 299 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $128,900 Active 298 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $128,900 Active 297 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $128,900 Active 295 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $128,900 Active 293 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $128,900 Active 292 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $128,900 Active 291 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $128,900 Active 290 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $128,900 Active 289 DOM
17. 2026-05-21
    price $128,900
18. 2026-04-09
    price $132,900
19. 2026-03-11
    price $135,900
20. 2026-02-03
    price $145,900
21. 2026-01-08
    price $154,900
22. 2025-12-02
    price $159,900
23. 2025-11-01
    price $164,900
24. 2025-10-04
    price $169,900
25. 2025-08-14
    listed $174,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,187 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,187 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,999
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,220
• − Property taxes: −$1,187
• − Insurance: −$644
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,200
• − Management: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$3,750
• Taxable loss: −$202
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$49
• After-tax cash flow: $1,955/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yreka Union High
• NCES district ID: 0643410
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $34,206
• Composite: 39.28/100
• National rank: #8184
• State rank: #630 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Montague

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #577
• US rank: #18799

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,696

Population outlook (Siskiyou County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,337 people
• By 2030: 36,930 · -6.1%
• By 2040: 32,367 · -17.7%
• By 2050: 29,030 · -26.2%
• By 2075: 23,534 · -40.2%
• By 2100: 19,312 · -50.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Native American 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Russian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Siskiyou

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 38.8% · R 58.0% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+20.7 2012: R+15.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.26%
• Current HPI: 140.7129
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-26.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $128,900 SMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $132,900 SMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $135,900 SMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $145,900 SMLS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $154,900 SMLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $159,900 SMLS
• 2025-11-01 Price Changed $164,900 SMLS
• 2025-10-04 Price Changed $169,900 SMLS
• 2025-08-14 Listed $174,900 SMLS

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,187 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.