951 W Avalon St #16

Kuna, ID 83634

$167,500B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Built 2017 · Manufactured · Active · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,250/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$878
• Tax + insurance: −$279
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $620/mo
• Annual: $7,436/yr
• Cap rate: 10.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.86%
• DSCR: 1.71
• 1% rule: 1.34%
• Cash to close: $46,900

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $168k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $620 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $168k).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $157k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#28 in ID, #3,954 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Kuna Joint District (town): math 28% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #71 of 92 in ID (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kuna High School (math 22% / reading 51%, grade F, #105 of 169 statewide, top 63%, 1,736 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 797 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,129 units permitted in Ada County in 2024 (414 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ada County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.2% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 2.8% in Kuna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.