951 W Avalon St #16 · Kuna, ID 83634

$167,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured · 69 Days on market

Built 2017

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

6 months of lot rent covered by seller with accepted offer! Don't miss this opportunity for affordable living on a spacious lot! This well maintained Fleetwood comes with plenty of updates and move in ready! The large lot provides ample parking, a storage shed, fully fenced yard and room to spread out. Conveniently located near downtown and recreational activities, this home offers both value and location.

Key facts

• Ample parking
• Spacious lot
• Storage shed

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• AMPLE PARKING
• STORAGE SHED
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info:
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security:
• Utilities: City water service; Sewer connected
• Home design: Mobile/manufactured home on a rented lot; Built in 2017
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Full metal fencing; Manual sprinkler system; Storage shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms, all on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Split bedroom layout; Family room; Walk-in closet(s); Breakfast bar
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Owned water softener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $620 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $168k).
• Recommended offer: $157k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 2.8% in Kuna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#28 in ID, #3,954 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Kuna Joint District (town): math 28% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #71 of 92 in ID (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kuna High School (math 22% / reading 51%, grade F, #105 of 169 statewide, top 63%, 1,736 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 797 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,129 units permitted in Ada County in 2024 (414 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ada County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.2% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,450 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.86%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $367,740
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1238 W Owyhee St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,575 (-3%)	13mo	$357,000	$227	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $19,909
• Equity at exit: $24,975

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $101,397
• Equity at exit: $14,482

Cash invested: $46,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Idaho: 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+18
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; minimal tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 83634

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Rents YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 797
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,250 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$878
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$209 /mo · $2,512/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $620

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,465

Max offer price $167,500

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,875
• Closing costs: $5,025
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1463 W Ryegrass Ct Kuna, ID	3.0	2.0	1290	$2,095	$1.62	23d	1	0.47mi
765 W Backpack Ln Apt 102 Kuna, ID	3.0	2.0	1206	$1,685	$1.40	3d	1	0.54mi
1832 N Madderlake Pl Kuna, ID	2.0–3.0	2.0	1130	$1,779	$1.57	2d	6	1.28mi
1320 N Sailer Ave Kuna, ID	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$2,000	$1.90	2d	1	1.33mi
2662 W Balboa Dr Kuna, ID	4.0	2.0	2025	$2,400	$1.19	11d	1	1.49mi
2711 W Balboa Dr Kuna, ID	3.0	2.5	1851	$2,146	$1.16	14d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 409-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $167,500 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $167,500 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $167,500 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $167,500 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $167,500 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $167,500 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $167,500 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $167,500 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $167,500 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $167,500 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $167,500 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $167,500 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $167,500 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $167,500 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $167,500 Active 51 DOM
17. 2026-04-28
    price $167,500
18. 2026-04-15
    status Active
19. 2026-04-09
    status Pending
20. 2026-04-03
    listed $179,000 Active
21. 2019-04-26
    soldstatus Sold
22. 2019-03-26
    status Pending
23. 2019-02-22
    listed $89,900 Active
24. 2016-02-08
    listed $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,996
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,383
• − Property taxes: −$2,512
• − Insurance: −$838
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,160
• − Management: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$4,873
• Taxable income: $5,072
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,217
• After-tax cash flow: $6,219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kuna Joint District
• NCES district ID: 1601770
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $61,786
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5765
• State rank: #71 of 92 in ID

Livability — Kuna

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #3954

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kuna, ID
• County: Ada County · 522,161 people
• City population: 36,286
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• Population (ZIP): 36,286
• Household income: $97,171
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 150.0

Population outlook (Ada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 535,818 people
• By 2030: 585,751 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 682,435 · +27.4%
• By 2050: 775,818 · +44.8%
• By 2075: 994,458 · +85.6%
• By 2100: 1,148,884 · +114.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ada

• 2024 margin: R (+10.3) · D 43.4% · R 53.8% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.2pp · 2024: -10.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.3 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+11.3 2008: R+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.50%
• Current HPI: 341.9896
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.23%
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ID)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$79B
▸Technology	1	$25B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$6B

Price history

+570.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $167,500 IMLS
• 2026-04-15 Relisted — IMLS
• 2026-04-09 Pending — IMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $179,000 IMLS
• 2019-04-26 Sold (MLS) — IMLS
• 2019-03-26 Pending — IMLS
• 2019-02-22 Listed $89,900 IMLS
• 2016-02-08 Listed $25,000 IMLS