2301 W Michigan Ave #15

Bellview, FL 32526

$120,000B+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,164 sqft · Built 1984 · Townhouse · Active · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,906/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$155
• HOA: −$105
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $616/mo
• Annual: $7,396/yr
• Cap rate: 12.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.01%
• DSCR: 1.98
• 1% rule: 1.59%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $616 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#561 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bellview Elementary School (math 28% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,854 of 2,144 statewide, top 87%, 545 students, 75% FRL); Bellview Middle School (math 17% / reading 23%, grade F, #558 of 571 statewide, top 98%, 992 students, 76% FRL); Pine Forest High School (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #494 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 1,870 students, 62% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Escambia average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 421 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $120k implies a 243% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.4% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 5.2% in Bellview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.