2301 W Michigan Ave #15 · Bellview, FL 32526

$120,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,164 sqft · Townhouse public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1984 871 sqft lot Est $135k · 11% under $105/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two bedroom 2.5 bath condo in need of some repairs/updates and is priced to sell fast. Home features a kitchen/dining area, half bath/laundry room and a living room with fireplace on lower level. Upstairs are the 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths. There are decks off of both bedrooms so you can enjoy the evenings and mornings sipping on your favorite drink.

Key facts

• Tile in kitchen
• New appliances
• Private courtyard

Tags

• TILE IN KITCHEN
• PRIVATE COURTYARD
• NEW APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association dues $1,260 annually (association-managed)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 spaces per unit
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric with circuit breakers and copper wiring; County maintained road
• Home design: Attached property; Two levels; Fairway VIllas building; Flat roof; Resale condition
• Construction: Frame construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Balcony; Patio; Central access; Interior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Self-cleaning oven; ENERGY STAR qualified dishwasher, refrigerator, water heater, and appliances; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom approx. 12 x 13 (156 sq ft); Second bedroom on second level approx. 10 x 12 (120 sq ft)
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s); Fireplace(s); ENERGY STAR qualified equipment
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $616 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 5.2% in Bellview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#561 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 423 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.4% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $120k implies a 243% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.01%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $135,024
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2303 W Michigan Ave Unit F-6	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,204 (+3%)	7mo	$125,000	$104	82
2300 W Michigan Ave #20	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,075 (-8%)	12mo	$125,000	$116	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $22,636
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $82,187
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32526

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 423
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,906 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,257/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$105
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $616

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,125

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $684	-5% $650	+0% $616	+5% $582	+10% $548
Rent	-10% $466	-5% $541	+0% $616	+5% $692	+10% $767
Rate	-1.0pp $677	-0.5pp $647	base $616	+0.5pp $585	+1.0pp $554

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
925 Twinbrook Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	1105	$1,750	$1.58	24d	1	0.53mi
918 Montclair Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	1012	$1,500	$1.48	15d	1	0.60mi
902 Lucerne Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,600	$1.25	24d	1	0.65mi
5877 Tryton Cir Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.0	1419	$1,825	$1.29	24d	1	0.69mi
3216 Two Sisters Way Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1117	$1,700	$1.52	24d	1	1.00mi
5180 Burlington Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,650	$1.39	24d	1	1.04mi
5472 Dover Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	840	$1,300	$1.55	24d	1	1.07mi
2702 Massachusetts Ave Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1150	$1,745	$1.52	15d	9	1.19mi
221 Edison Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,598	$1.07	24d	1	1.22mi
6322 Louisville Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1001	$2,147	$2.14	24d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $105 · $1,260/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $120,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    listed $125,000 Active
17. 2017-04-06
    soldstatus $35,000 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Two bedroom 2.5 bath condo in need of some repairs/updates and is priced to sell fast. Home features a kitchen/dining area, half bath/laundry room and a living room with fireplace on lower level. Upstairs are the 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths. There are decks off of both bedrooms so you can enjoy the evenings and mornings sipping on your favorite drink.

18. 2017-03-09
    listed $39,900 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Two bedroom 2.5 bath condo in need of some repairs/updates and is priced to sell fast. Home features a kitchen/dining area, half bath/laundry room and a living room with fireplace on lower level. Upstairs are the 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths. There are decks off of both bedrooms so you can enjoy the evenings and mornings sipping on your favorite drink.

19. 2012-12-11
    soldstatus $44,200
20. 2012-11-29
    soldstatus $44,200 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Great Room has corner brick fireplace - kitchen & dining combination - 1/2 bath - downstairs has laundry - new dishwasher & refrigerator - New roof - All windows have had new double pane glass with solar film installed - Master suite has walk-in closet and shower only - opens to balcony. All furniture stay except personal items - Fenced court yard - Tile floors in kitchen. Hurrican shutters for both patio doors upstairs.

21. 2011-07-18
    listed $45,000 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Great Room has corner brick fireplace - kitchen & dining combination - 1/2 bath - downstairs has laundry - new dishwasher & refrigerator - New roof - All windows have had new double pane glass with solar film installed - Master suite has walk-in closet and shower only - opens to balcony. All furniture stay except personal items - Fenced court yard - Tile floors in kitchen. Hurrican shutters for both patio doors upstairs.

22. 2001-06-29
    soldstatus $42,900
23. 1985-11-01
    soldstatus $37,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,257 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,257 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,866
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,257
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,829
• − Management: −$1,829
• − HOA: −$1,260
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $5,878
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,411
• After-tax cash flow: $5,985/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bellview

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #561
• US rank: #10731

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bellview, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,680
• Household income: $75,098
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1166.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 19% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.68%
• Current HPI: 252.6406
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.42%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+233.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $125,000 PARMLS
• 2017-04-06 Sold (MLS) $35,000 PARMLS
• 2017-03-09 Listed $39,900 PARMLS
• 2012-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $44,200 Public Records
• 2012-11-29 Sold (MLS) $44,200 PARMLS
• 2011-07-18 Listed $45,000 PARMLS
• 2001-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $42,900 Public Records
• 1985-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $37,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,257 · +19.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.