12727 W Glendale Ave #106

Glendale, AZ 85307

$64,200B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 1983 · Manufactured · Active · 287 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,464/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$337
• Tax + insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $713/mo
• Annual: $8,552/yr
• Cap rate: 19.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.57%
• DSCR: 3.12
• 1% rule: 2.28%
• Cash to close: $17,976

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $64k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $713 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $64k).
• It's been on market 287 days — a 12% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $56k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $444 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#12 in AZ, #3,235 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F.
• Agua Fria Union High School District (4289) (suburban): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #99 of 249 in AZ (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Agua Fria High School (math 15% / reading 26%, grade F, #222 of 381 statewide, top 59%, 1,652 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 60 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 19.6% vs local median 3.5% in Glendale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 287 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.