3514 Walnut St

Progress, PA 17109

$457,000B

24 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,450 sqft · Built 1900 · MultiFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,651/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,397
• Tax + insurance: −$604
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,607
• Net cashflow: $3,044/mo
• Annual: $36,524/yr
• Cap rate: 14.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.54%
• DSCR: 2.27
• 1% rule: 1.67%
• Cash to close: $127,960

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 6-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $457k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($37k/yr) — positive. Per door: $761/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $457k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#385 in PA, #3,436 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Susquehanna Township SD (suburban): math 17% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #444 of 539 in PA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Susquehanna Twp Hs (math 37% / reading 10%, grade F, #379 of 437 statewide, top 87%, 743 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 35% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 78 active listings in the ZIP; 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $198k; list at $457k implies a 131% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.4% rent growth), your $128k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 4.3% in Progress — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $7,651/mo this rent would consume 128% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) (locally 1266% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.