3514 Walnut St · Progress, PA 17109

$457,000

24 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,450 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1900 7,841 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

This 4-Unit Building is the Perfect addition to your investment Portfolio! Central Air and Natural Gas heat! Brand new gas water heater in 1 unit and brand new furnace in 1 unit. Parking lot accommodates 8 cars or more in this 4 unit building. On the main level in the rear of the building you have a 2 bedroom unit, with a full bath, living room, kitchen and storage room. There is a 1 bedroom unit in the front of the building also on the mail level with living room, over-sized full bath and kitchen. Upstairs there are 2 Units each with a spacious bedroom, living room, kitchen and separate Den. Convenient Location to I-83, Bus Transportation, schools, shopping and more! Don't delay call to schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Gas heat
• Bus transportation
• Completely renovated

Tags

• COMPLETELY RENOVATED
• GAS HEAT
• CENTRAL AIR
• SEPARATELY METERED
• OFF-STREET PARKING
• BUS TRANSPORTATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 6-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $457k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($37k/yr) — positive. Per door: $761/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $457k).
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 4.3% in Progress — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#385 in PA, #3,436 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Susquehanna Township SD (suburban): math 17% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #444 of 539 in PA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Susquehanna Twp Hs (math 37% / reading 10%, grade F, #379 of 437 statewide, top 87%, 743 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 35% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 78 active listings in the ZIP; 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,651/mo this rent would consume 128% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) (locally 1266% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.4% rent growth), your $128k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $198k; list at $457k implies a 131% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $457,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.54%
• DSCR: 2.27
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $138,492
• Equity at exit: $68,140

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.52×
• Total profit: $450,735
• Equity at exit: $39,513

Cash invested: $127,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17109

• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 19.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,651 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,397
• Tax from tax record: −$414 /mo · $4,964/yr
• Insurance: −$190
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,607
• Net cashflow: $3,044

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,798

Max offer price $457,000

Occupancy floor 55%

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	6	1	$7,652
Total (4 units)			$7,651

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $114,250
• Closing costs: $13,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   price $457,000
3. 2026-03-30
   listed $450,000 Active
4. 2020-10-13
   soldstatus $197,500
5. 2020-10-06
   soldstatus $197,500 Closed 735-char remark

   Show marketing remark (735 chars)

   This 4-Unit Building is the Perfect addition to your investment Portfolio! Central Air and Natural Gas heat! Brand new gas water heater in 1 unit and brand new furnace in 1 unit. Parking lot accommodates 8 cars or more in this 4 unit building. On the main level in the rear of the building you have a 2 bedroom unit, with a full bath, living room, kitchen and storage room. There is a 1 bedroom unit in the front of the building also on the mail level with living room, over-sized full bath and kitchen. Upstairs there are 2 Units each with a spacious bedroom, living room, kitchen and separate Den. Convenient Location to I-83, Bus Transportation, schools, shopping and more! Don't delay call to schedule your private showing today!

6. 2020-09-22
   status Pending 735-char remark

   Show marketing remark (735 chars)

   This 4-Unit Building is the Perfect addition to your investment Portfolio! Central Air and Natural Gas heat! Brand new gas water heater in 1 unit and brand new furnace in 1 unit. Parking lot accommodates 8 cars or more in this 4 unit building. On the main level in the rear of the building you have a 2 bedroom unit, with a full bath, living room, kitchen and storage room. There is a 1 bedroom unit in the front of the building also on the mail level with living room, over-sized full bath and kitchen. Upstairs there are 2 Units each with a spacious bedroom, living room, kitchen and separate Den. Convenient Location to I-83, Bus Transportation, schools, shopping and more! Don't delay call to schedule your private showing today!

7. 2020-09-20
   listed $149,900 Active 735-char remark

   Show marketing remark (735 chars)

   This 4-Unit Building is the Perfect addition to your investment Portfolio! Central Air and Natural Gas heat! Brand new gas water heater in 1 unit and brand new furnace in 1 unit. Parking lot accommodates 8 cars or more in this 4 unit building. On the main level in the rear of the building you have a 2 bedroom unit, with a full bath, living room, kitchen and storage room. There is a 1 bedroom unit in the front of the building also on the mail level with living room, over-sized full bath and kitchen. Upstairs there are 2 Units each with a spacious bedroom, living room, kitchen and separate Den. Convenient Location to I-83, Bus Transportation, schools, shopping and more! Don't delay call to schedule your private showing today!

8. 2003-07-24
   soldstatus $200,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,964 · $414/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,092 · $508/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,128/yr (+$94/mo · 22.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $91,812
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,599
• − Property taxes: −$4,964
• − Insurance: −$2,285
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,345
• − Management: −$7,345
• − Depreciation: −$13,295
• Taxable income: $30,979
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$7,435
• After-tax cash flow: $29,089/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Susquehanna Township SD
• NCES district ID: 4223010
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,794
• Composite: 25.59/100
• National rank: #7424
• State rank: #444 of 539 in PA

Livability — Progress

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #3436

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Progress, PA
• County: Dauphin County · 247,857 people
• City population: 27,422
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 27,466
• Household income: $71,833
• Rent vs Own: 48.0% rent · 52.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1266.0

Population outlook (Dauphin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 281,628 people
• By 2030: 283,549 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 285,385 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 286,188 · +1.6%
• By 2075: 291,053 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 282,374 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 13% Asian 11% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Polish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · India, Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Spanish 5% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dauphin

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: 9.1pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+8.5 2016: D+2.8 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+9.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.02%
• Current HPI: 253.77
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.37%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+128.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $457,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $450,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $197,500 Public Records
• 2020-10-06 Sold (MLS) $197,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-09-22 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-09-20 Listed $149,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,964 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.