312 Park Ave

Seneca, OR 97873

$149,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,284 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,155/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $-29/mo
• Annual: $-349/yr
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.08%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-29 ($-349/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (22.5% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $116k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#237 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• John Day SD 3 (rural): math 31% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #16 of 58 in OR (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Seneca Elementary School (math 24% / reading 24%, 12 students, 33% FRL); Grant Union Junior/Senior High School (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #85 of 143 statewide, top 61%, 216 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Grant County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grant County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.