1961 Essex Dr

Sumter, SC 29154

$179,900D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,501 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,337/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$249
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $-136/mo
• Annual: $-1,637/yr
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.25%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-136 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (13.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (25.7% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $134k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#235 in SC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sumter 01 (urban): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #64 of 80 in SC (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Millwood Elementary (math 41% / reading 41%, grade F, #276 of 597 statewide, top 48%, 682 students, 100% FRL); Bates Middle (math 9% / reading 21%, grade F, #202 of 229 statewide, top 89%, 569 students, 100% FRL); Sumter High School (math 22% / reading 67%, grade F, #166 of 196 statewide, top 87%, 2,289 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 64% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 238 active listings in the ZIP; 386 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sumter County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $93k; list at $180k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.4% in Sumter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.