2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,040 sqft ·
Built 1965
· Manufactured
· Active
· 33 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$5,287/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$3,120
Tax + insurance
−$992
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,110
Net cashflow
$65/mo
Annual
$777/yr
Cap rate
6.42%
Cash-on-cash
0.47%
DSCR
1.02
1% rule
0.89%
Cash to close
$166,600
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $595k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($777/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $529k (11.1% below list).
It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($577k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $529k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $64k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $60k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#101 in CA, #3,645 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, commute A; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
Newport-Mesa Unified (urban): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #106 of 517 in CA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Corona Del Mar High (math 55% / reading 63%, grade C+, #221 of 1,170 statewide, top 19%, 2,059 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools average 20% FRL vs 40% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 154 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $167k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$102k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 0.6% in Newport Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($160k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-M8JWG751CCNA08
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29