316 Exeter Ave

Middlesborough, KY 40965

$125,000B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,592 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,206/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$504
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $-207/mo
• Annual: $-2,485/yr
• Cap rate: 8.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.52%
• DSCR: 1.33
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-207 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $88k (29.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (3.5% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $88k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#456 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Middlesboro Independent (town): math 14% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #153 of 165 in KY (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Middlesboro Elementary School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #572 of 676 statewide, top 88%, 453 students, 83% FRL); Middlesboro Middle School (math 17% / reading 41%, grade F, #156 of 217 statewide, top 74%, 281 students, 82% FRL); Middlesboro High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #222 of 254 statewide, top 89%, 352 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 63% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 44 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bell County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.3% in Middlesborough — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.