316 Exeter Ave · Middlesborough, KY 40965

$125,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,592 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1920 2.30 ac lot $48/sqft · 31% below area Est $182k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for an older home to bring back to life. This home has all the old wood trim. big rooms with fireplaces in most of the rooms, this home comes with an extra building lot and a garage/ carport also. Call Now!!

Key facts

• 2.3 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1920

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; 2-space carport; Off-street parking; Main-level parking access
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Detached property; 2,592 total building area (per tax records)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Frame construction; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Level lot; Mountain and city views; Workshop on the property

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Natural gas heating; No central air conditioning
• Interior features: 11 total rooms; Wood-burning stove; Brick and masonry fireplace features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-207 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $88k (29.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (3.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $88k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.3% in Middlesborough — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#456 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Middlesboro Independent (town): math 14% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #153 of 165 in KY (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Middlesboro Elementary School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #572 of 676 statewide, top 88%, 453 students, 83% FRL); Middlesboro Middle School (math 17% / reading 41%, grade F, #156 of 217 statewide, top 74%, 281 students, 82% FRL); Middlesboro High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #222 of 254 statewide, top 89%, 352 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 63% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 44 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Bell County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,420 (29.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.52%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $182,242
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -31.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2824 W Cumberland Ave	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,500 (-4%)	10mo	$390,000	$156	58
215 South 21st St	0.19mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,844 (+10%)	21mo	$85,000	$30	44
805 Worchester Ave	0.63mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,250 (-13%)	2mo	$324,900	$144	38
2731 W Cumberland Ave	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,908 (+12%)	23mo	$225,000	$77	34
412 Wilderness Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,300 (-11%)	14mo	$186,000	$81	31
1009 Rochester Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,206 (-15%)	18mo	$210,000	$95	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $6,091
• Equity at exit: $60,483

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $35,607
• Equity at exit: $96,684

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40965

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,206 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $310/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $-207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,468

Max offer price $88,420

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-136	-5% $-172	+0% $-207	+5% $-242	+10% $-278
Rent	-10% $-302	-5% $-255	+0% $-207	+5% $-159	+10% $-112
Rate	-1.0pp $-144	-0.5pp $-175	base $-207	+0.5pp $-239	+1.0pp $-272

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-08
   listed $125,000 Active 215-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $310 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,075 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$765/yr (+$64/mo · 247.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,474
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$310
• − Insurance: −$5,744
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,158
• − Management: −$1,158
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$4,533
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,088
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middlesboro Independent
• NCES district ID: 2104170
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $23,442
• Composite: 18.61/100
• National rank: #8900
• State rank: #153 of 165 in KY

Livability — Middlesborough

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #456
• US rank: #22662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middlesborough, KY
• City population: 11,698
• Population (ZIP): 11,698

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,501 people
• By 2030: 22,923 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 19,860 · -18.9%
• By 2050: 17,161 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 12,070 · -50.7%
• By 2100: 8,525 · -65.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.7) · D 15.2% · R 83.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -68.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.7 2020: R+63.2 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+51.7 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.60%
• Current HPI: 134.9069
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — Knoxville MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $125,000 Knoxville MLS

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $310 · -6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.