33 Commerce St

New Oxford, PA 17350

$205,000C-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1975 · Townhouse · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,116/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax + insurance: −$346
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $251/mo
• Annual: $3,009/yr
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.24%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $57,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $205k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $251 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#944 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Conewago Valley SD (suburban): math 39% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #215 of 539 in PA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 403 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Adams County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask is 87% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $104k; list at $205k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.