33 Commerce St · New Oxford, PA 17350

$205,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,152 sqft · Townhouse public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1975 2,614 sqft lot Est $200k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully renovated home in New Oxford! Home boasts new flooring throughout, fresh paint, tile flooring in both bathrooms with new cabinets and sinks, all new windows, new siding, new front and back doors. $0 money down financing available. This won't last long!!! Call today to schedule a showing!!!

Key facts

• 3 parking spots
• Built 1975
• Listed 2 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Three total garage/parking spaces; Driveway with three spaces; Shared driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric hot water
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership; Good condition; Architectural shingle roof
• Construction: Frame and brick construction; Built (year source: Assessor); Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Not in a federal flood zone

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (upper level); One half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Tub/shower; Combination kitchen and dining area; Traditional floor plan; Upgraded countertops; Drywall walls and ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry on the main floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $251 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#944 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Conewago Valley SD (suburban): math 39% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #215 of 539 in PA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 403 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask is 87% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $104k; list at $205k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.24%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $200,448
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25 Commerce St	0.02mi	3/1.5	1,152 (0%)	4mo	$199,900	$174	96
5 Oxwood Cir	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,120 (-3%)	0mo	$205,000	$183	66
12 Fiddler Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-1%)	6mo	$200,000	$175	62
1 Oxford Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,240 (+8%)	5mo	$190,000	$153	58
41 Fiddler Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-1%)	13mo	$210,000	$184	55
206 S Water St	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,040 (-10%)	7mo	$160,000	$154	48
4 Oxwood Cir	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,300 (+13%)	2mo	$199,900	$154	47
4 Oxford Ct	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	983 (-15%)	7mo	$169,900	$173	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-17,214
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $5,715
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17350

• Home prices YoY: -20.7%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,116 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$260 /mo · $3,126/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $251

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,799

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $367	-5% $309	+0% $251	+5% $193	+10% $135
Rent	-10% $84	-5% $167	+0% $251	+5% $334	+10% $418
Rate	-1.0pp $354	-0.5pp $303	base $251	+0.5pp $198	+1.0pp $144

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on market $205,000 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   status $199,900 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   remarks 693-char remark
4. 2026-06-09
   listed $199,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,126 · $260/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,182 · $265/mo
• Expected delta: +$57/yr (+$5/mo · 1.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,393
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,126
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,031
• − Management: −$2,031
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$268
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$64
• After-tax cash flow: $3,073/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conewago Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4206550
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $54,603
• Composite: 41.08/100
• National rank: #3572
• State rank: #215 of 539 in PA

Livability — New Oxford

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #944
• US rank: #10326

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Oxford, PA
• Population (ZIP): 13,219

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 102,494 people
• By 2030: 101,890 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 98,417 · -4.0%
• By 2050: 92,014 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 76,128 · -25.7%
• By 2100: 58,931 · -42.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.6) · D 32.7% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.1pp toward R · 2008: -19.6pp · 2024: -33.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+36.4 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+19.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.47%
• Current HPI: 293.6445
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+42.9% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Coming Soon $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $104,000 Public Records
• 2019-01-31 Sold (MLS) $104,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-12-18 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-12-14 Price Changed $109,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-11-24 Price Changed $109,800 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-11-02 Listed $109,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-04-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-10-19 Listed $109,400 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $54,900 Public Records
• 2010-12-31 Sold (MLS) $54,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-12-13 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-07-30 Listed $90,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $136,900 Public Records
• 2007-06-29 Sold (MLS) $136,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-03-21 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-01-03 Listed $139,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,126 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.