5108 Grand Oak Cir

Lake Park, GA 31636

$290,000F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,199 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 137 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,091/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax + insurance: −$378
• HOA: −$27
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $-275/mo
• Annual: $-3,295/yr
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.06%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $81,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-275 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (27.9% below list).
• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $209k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#119 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lowndes County (rural): math 59% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #8 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.9% in Lake Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.