5108 Grand Oak Cir · Lake Park, GA 31636

$290,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,199 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 137 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 7,841 sqft lot $132/sqft · 17% above area Est $261k · 11% over $27/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.4/15.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ASSUMABLE LOAN w/ 5.5% APR!! This like-new construction home qualifies for USDA (no money down), VA and FHA. Zoned for Lake Park Elementary and Moulton-Branch Elementary. Featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, granite counters, a massive screen-in patio with little-to-no backyard allowing for a beautiful home with virtually no lawn maintenance! Ultra-wide hallways, LVP throughout the main living quarters with an extensive open floorplan, designed for elegance and privacy, and is prewired for a home generator. Over 2300 sqft with large screened in patio and little-to-no backyard- perfect for the home owner that doesn't fancy lawn maintenance. This home hosts your primary bedroom on the opposite side of the rest of the bedrooms. This coveted neighborhood is near shopping centers and grocery stores, a short drive south of the city or highway, and ready for its new home owner. Warranties on the home and appliances transfer to the new home owner. Call today to schedule your tour!!

Key facts

• Ultra-wide hallways
• Open floorplan
• Coveted neighborhood

Tags

• SCREEN-IN PATIO
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• ULTRA-WIDE HALLWAYS
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• PREWIRED FOR A HOME GENERATOR
• COVETED NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-275 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (27.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.9% in Lake Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#119 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lowndes County (rural): math 59% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #8 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,064 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.06%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,536
• List price: $290,000
• Delta: 11.31%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5054 Hammock Trl	0.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,221 (+1%)	3mo	$335,000	$151	79
4893 Hammer Ln	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,154 (-2%)	4mo	$349,250	$162	71
5050 Diamond Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5	1,999 (-9%)	1mo	$315,000	$158	70
5421 Forest Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,200 (0%)	5mo	$290,000	$132	55
5020 Carriage Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,899 (-14%)	11mo	$235,000	$124	55
4940 Diamond Dr	0.48mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,029 (-8%)	6mo	$332,000	$164	54
5322 Moss Oak Trl	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,038 (-7%)	1mo	$330,000	$162	49
4956 Diamond Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,916 (-13%)	9mo	$330,000	$172	48
4875 Hammer Ln	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,906 (-13%)	6mo	$329,900	$173	46
5674 Clydetta Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0	1,977 (-10%)	4mo	$290,000	$147	44
4845 Smokey Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,968 (-10%)	8mo	$335,000	$170	44
5314 Moss Oak Trl	0.58mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,962 (-11%)	13mo	$370,000	$189	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-64,497
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-78,747
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31636

• Home prices YoY: -13.6%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,091 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$258 /mo · $3,091/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$27
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $-275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,438

Max offer price $241,495

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-110	-5% $-192	+0% $-275	+5% $-357	+10% $-439
Rent	-10% $-440	-5% $-357	+0% $-275	+5% $-192	+10% $-109
Rate	-1.0pp $-129	-0.5pp $-201	base $-275	+0.5pp $-350	+1.0pp $-426

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4901 Liberty Cir Lake Park, GA	3.0	2.5	1523	$1,600	$1.05	21d	1	0.57mi
5582 Timberwind Cir Lake Park, GA	4.0	3.0	2262	$3,000	$1.33	21d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $27 · $324/yr

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $290,000 Active 137 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $290,000 Active 136 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $290,000 Active 135 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $290,000 Active 134 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $290,000 Active 133 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $290,000 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,000 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $290,000 Active 128 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $290,000 Active 127 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $290,000 Active 126 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $290,000 Active 125 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $290,000 Active 122 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $290,000 Active 121 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $290,000 Active 120 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $290,000 Active 119 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,000 Active 118 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $290,000 Active 117 DOM
18. 2026-03-21
    price $290,000 989-char remark

    Show marketing remark (989 chars)

    ASSUMABLE LOAN w/ 5.5% APR!! This like-new construction home qualifies for USDA (no money down), VA and FHA. Zoned for Lake Park Elementary and Moulton-Branch Elementary. Featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, granite counters, a massive screen-in patio with little-to-no backyard allowing for a beautiful home with virtually no lawn maintenance! Ultra-wide hallways, LVP throughout the main living quarters with an extensive open floorplan, designed for elegance and privacy, and is prewired for a home generator. Over 2300 sqft with large screened in patio and little-to-no backyard- perfect for the home owner that doesn't fancy lawn maintenance. This home hosts your primary bedroom on the opposite side of the rest of the bedrooms. This coveted neighborhood is near shopping centers and grocery stores, a short drive south of the city or highway, and ready for its new home owner. Warranties on the home and appliances transfer to the new home owner. Call today to schedule your tour!!

19. 2026-02-16
    price $310,000 989-char remark

    Show marketing remark (989 chars)

    ASSUMABLE LOAN w/ 5.5% APR!! This like-new construction home qualifies for USDA (no money down), VA and FHA. Zoned for Lake Park Elementary and Moulton-Branch Elementary. Featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, granite counters, a massive screen-in patio with little-to-no backyard allowing for a beautiful home with virtually no lawn maintenance! Ultra-wide hallways, LVP throughout the main living quarters with an extensive open floorplan, designed for elegance and privacy, and is prewired for a home generator. Over 2300 sqft with large screened in patio and little-to-no backyard- perfect for the home owner that doesn't fancy lawn maintenance. This home hosts your primary bedroom on the opposite side of the rest of the bedrooms. This coveted neighborhood is near shopping centers and grocery stores, a short drive south of the city or highway, and ready for its new home owner. Warranties on the home and appliances transfer to the new home owner. Call today to schedule your tour!!

20. 2026-02-02
    listed $320,000 Active 989-char remark

    Show marketing remark (989 chars)

    ASSUMABLE LOAN w/ 5.5% APR!! This like-new construction home qualifies for USDA (no money down), VA and FHA. Zoned for Lake Park Elementary and Moulton-Branch Elementary. Featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, granite counters, a massive screen-in patio with little-to-no backyard allowing for a beautiful home with virtually no lawn maintenance! Ultra-wide hallways, LVP throughout the main living quarters with an extensive open floorplan, designed for elegance and privacy, and is prewired for a home generator. Over 2300 sqft with large screened in patio and little-to-no backyard- perfect for the home owner that doesn't fancy lawn maintenance. This home hosts your primary bedroom on the opposite side of the rest of the bedrooms. This coveted neighborhood is near shopping centers and grocery stores, a short drive south of the city or highway, and ready for its new home owner. Warranties on the home and appliances transfer to the new home owner. Call today to schedule your tour!!

21. 2026-01-16
    historical
22. 2025-11-19
    price $320,979
23. 2025-11-19
    price $320,979
24. 2025-07-16
    listed $330,000 New
25. 2023-09-29
    soldstatus $289,900 Closed
26. 2023-09-05
    status Pending
27. 2023-08-28
    status Active
28. 2023-08-15
    historical
29. 2023-08-12
    price $289,900
30. 2023-07-15
    status Active
31. 2023-07-13
    historical
32. 2023-04-04
    price $294,900
33. 2023-01-12
    listed $314,900 Active
34. 2022-03-21
    soldstatus $1,332,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,091 · $258/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,091 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,088
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$3,091
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,007
• − Management: −$2,007
• − HOA: −$324
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$8,472
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,033
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This like-new construction home is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates that can further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and is easier to maintain
• Both Install smart home automation — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and is easier to maintain ↑
• Both Install smart home automation — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lowndes County
• NCES district ID: 1303390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,221
• Composite: 47.21/100
• National rank: #2317
• State rank: #8 of 174 in GA

Livability — Lake Park

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #119
• US rank: #8632

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Park, GA
• Population (ZIP): 11,184

Population outlook (Lowndes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,348 people
• By 2030: 123,469 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 128,482 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 131,907 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 139,080 · +15.6%
• By 2100: 133,649 · +11.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Lowndes

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 40.8% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+18.2 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.27%
• Current HPI: 205.6279
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-78.2% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $290,000 SGMLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $310,000 SGMLS
• 2026-02-02 Listed $320,000 SGMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $320,979 SGMLS
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $320,979 GAMLS
• 2025-07-16 Listed $330,000 GAMLS
• 2023-09-29 Sold (MLS) $289,900 SGMLS
• 2023-09-05 Pending — SGMLS
• 2023-08-28 Relisted — SGMLS
• 2023-08-15 Delisted — SGMLS
• 2023-08-12 Price Changed $289,900 SGMLS
• 2023-07-15 Relisted — SGMLS
• 2023-07-13 Delisted — SGMLS
• 2023-04-04 Price Changed $294,900 SGMLS
• 2023-01-12 Listed $314,900 SGMLS
• 2022-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $1,332,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+127.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,091 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.