151 Bright Ibis Ave

Apollo Beach, FL 33572

$499,990D-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,964 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 74 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,626/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax + insurance: −$1,344
• HOA: −$126
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$761
• Net cashflow: $-1,227/mo
• Annual: $-14,729/yr
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.86%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $139,997

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $500k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (43.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $363k (27.5% below list).
• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($470k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $283k (43.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#333 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Apollo Beach Elementary School (math 73% / reading 65%, grade A-, #399 of 2,144 statewide, top 19%, 561 students, 40% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 866 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 49d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.9% in Apollo Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($122k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?