11314 Loyola Dr

Houston, TX 77429

$200,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,477 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Pending · 93 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,724/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$469
• HOA: −$25
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-180/mo
• Annual: $-2,162/yr
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.86%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-180 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (13.8% below list).
• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $168k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lamkin El (math 31% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 893 students, 69% FRL); Arnold Middle (math 48% / reading 52%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,414 students, 67% FRL); Cypress-Fairbanks J J A E P (12 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 618 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($119k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?