510 Hogg St

Mineola, TX 75773

$139,900D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 901 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Active · 130 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,147/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$220
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $-47/mo
• Annual: $-565/yr
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.44%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-565/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (18.0% below list).
• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $115k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#392 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Mineola ISD (town): math 54% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #190 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 261 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 46% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.6% in Mineola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.