510 Hogg St · Mineola, TX 75773

$139,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 901 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 130 Days on market

Built 1930 2,265 sqft lot $155/sqft · 7% below area Est $151k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and conveniently located, this beautifully updated home sits just minutes from everything Mineola has to offer. Fully remodeled only 3 years ago, it features a 3-year-old roof, AC, and siding for peace of mind. Enjoy relaxing on the inviting front porch and the privacy of a fully fenced yard. Fresh paint and newer flooring make it completely move-in ready. Perfect for a homeowner or an excellent turnkey rental opportunity.

Key facts

• Inviting front porch
• Updated home
• 3 year old roof

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• 3 YEAR OLD ROOF
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• INVITING FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-565/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.6% in Mineola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#392 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Mineola ISD (town): math 54% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #190 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 261 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 46% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,689 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.44%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $151,189
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -7.47%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
302 W Patten St	0.05mi	2/1.0	884 (-2%)	24mo	$129,900	$147	71
400 N Line St	0.11mi	2/1.0	965 (+7%)	13mo	$198,000	$205	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-25,662
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-26,174
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75773

• Home prices YoY: -8.9%
• Active inventory: 261
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,147 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,935/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $-47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,207

Max offer price $131,576

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $32	-5% $-8	+0% $-47	+5% $-87	+10% $-126
Rent	-10% $-138	-5% $-92	+0% $-47	+5% $-2	+10% $43
Rate	-1.0pp $23	-0.5pp $-12	base $-47	+0.5pp $-83	+1.0pp $-120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
521 W Blair St Unit 2 Mineola, TX	2.0	2.0	600	$1,000	$1.67	14d	1	0.33mi
115 Isabella St Mineola, TX	3.0	2.0	1085	$1,350	$1.24	22d	1	1.12mi
167 Blue Bird Ln Mineola, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	805	$1,350	$1.68	14d	5	1.26mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,900 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 120 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,900 Active 119 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,900 Active 110 DOM
16. 2026-02-16
    status Active 435-char remark

    Show marketing remark (435 chars)

    Charming and conveniently located, this beautifully updated home sits just minutes from everything Mineola has to offer. Fully remodeled only 3 years ago, it features a 3-year-old roof, AC, and siding for peace of mind. Enjoy relaxing on the inviting front porch and the privacy of a fully fenced yard. Fresh paint and newer flooring make it completely move-in ready. Perfect for a homeowner or an excellent turnkey rental opportunity.

17. 2026-02-14
    historical Active Option Contract 435-char remark

    Show marketing remark (435 chars)

    Charming and conveniently located, this beautifully updated home sits just minutes from everything Mineola has to offer. Fully remodeled only 3 years ago, it features a 3-year-old roof, AC, and siding for peace of mind. Enjoy relaxing on the inviting front porch and the privacy of a fully fenced yard. Fresh paint and newer flooring make it completely move-in ready. Perfect for a homeowner or an excellent turnkey rental opportunity.

18. 2026-02-09
    listed $139,900 Active 435-char remark

    Show marketing remark (435 chars)

    Charming and conveniently located, this beautifully updated home sits just minutes from everything Mineola has to offer. Fully remodeled only 3 years ago, it features a 3-year-old roof, AC, and siding for peace of mind. Enjoy relaxing on the inviting front porch and the privacy of a fully fenced yard. Fresh paint and newer flooring make it completely move-in ready. Perfect for a homeowner or an excellent turnkey rental opportunity.

19. 2024-11-02
    historical $1,250
20. 2024-09-20
    listed $1,250
21. 2021-10-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,935 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,560 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$626/yr (+$52/mo · 32.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 46% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,763
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,935
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,101
• − Management: −$1,101
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$2,980
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$715
• After-tax cash flow: $150/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mineola ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830930
• Math proficiency: 54% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,121
• Composite: 42.27/100
• National rank: #3274
• State rank: #190 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mineola

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #8222

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mineola, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,311

Population outlook (Wood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,480 people
• By 2030: 47,796 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 50,142 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 52,122 · +12.1%
• By 2075: 57,033 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 56,418 · +21.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.8% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+70.0 2012: R+64.2 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.31%
• Current HPI: 227.0529
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11092.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-16 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-02-14 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $139,900 NTREIS
• 2024-11-02 Rental Removed $1,250 BUILDIUM
• 2024-09-20 Listed for Rent $1,250 BUILDIUM
• 2021-10-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+26.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,935 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.