1906 Mariners Cir

St. Simons, GA 31522

$495,000C

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,759 sqft · Built 2016 · Townhouse · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,824/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax + insurance: −$855
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,013
• Net cashflow: $360/mo
• Annual: $4,317/yr
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.81%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $138,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $495k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $360 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $482k (2.5% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($480k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $480k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Glynn County (other): math 37% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #47 of 174 in GA (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 577 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 734 units permitted in Glynn County in 2024 (136 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Glynn County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask is 32% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $277k; list at $495k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 1.7% in St. Simons — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,824/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($109k/yr) (locally 339% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.