1906 Mariners Cir · St. Simons, GA 31522

$495,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,759 sqft · Townhouse public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2016 3,049 sqft lot $281/sqft · 7% below area Est $529k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Location, location, location right across from the pool amenities & a private, fenced in yard! Featured multiple times on HGTV's Island Life show, this St Simons Island town home has everything you need for comfortable island living. A desirable floor plan, designer touches throughout, an ideal location near the pool, stocked lake, nearby park, this home really does have it all. Enter to find ship lap walls, convenient half bath adjacent to garage, a gorgeous kitchen, pantry, tiled back splash, quartz counter tops, custom cabinets & hardware & plenty of room to enjoy guests & gourmet meals. A screened porch welcomes you to relax and enjoy privacy in the backyard. Ups

Key facts

• Custom cabinets
• Pool amenities
• Gorgeous kitchen

Tags

• POOL AMENITIES
• SHIP LAP WALLS
• GORGEOUS KITCHEN
• TILED BACK SPLASH
• QUARTZ COUNTER TOPS
• CUSTOM CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $495k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $360 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $482k (2.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $480k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 1.7% in St. Simons — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Glynn County (other): math 37% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #47 of 174 in GA (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 577 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 734 units permitted in Glynn County in 2024 (136 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,824/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($109k/yr) (locally 339% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Glynn County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($480k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask is 32% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $277k; list at $495k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $480,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.81%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $529,470
• List price: $495,000
• Delta: -6.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
111 Gascoigne Ave #201	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,792 (+2%)	2mo	$798,000	$445	90
1907 Mariners Cir	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,834 (+4%)	5mo	$580,000	$316	89
105 Gascoigne Ave #204	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,760 (+0%)	9mo	$750,000	$426	86
105 Gascoigne Ave #103	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,836 (+4%)	0mo	$725,000	$395	86
105 Gascoigne Ave #302	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,786 (+2%)	6mo	$745,000	$417	86
117 Gascoigne Ave #106	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,792 (+2%)	8mo	$775,000	$432	83
1603 Mariners Cir	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,596 (-9%)	4mo	$530,000	$332	78
1202 Reserve Ln	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,772 (+1%)	8mo	$561,750	$317	68
804 Reserve Ln	0.57mi	3/2.5	1,772 (+1%)	9mo	$530,000	$299	65
375 Brockinton Marsh	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,662 (-6%)	1mo	$429,000	$258	56
20 Waterfront Dr #124	0.64mi	3/3.0	1,550 (-12%)	1mo	$697,000	$450	47
20 Waterfront Dr #322	0.64mi	3/3.0	1,550 (-12%)	2mo	$615,225	$397	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-60,773
• Equity at exit: $73,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-37,460
• Equity at exit: $42,799

Cash invested: $138,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31522

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 577
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,824 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax from tax record: −$223 /mo · $2,672/yr
• Insurance: −$206
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,013
• Net cashflow: $360

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,369

Max offer price $495,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $640	-5% $500	+0% $360	+5% $220	+10% $80
Rent	-10% $-21	-5% $169	+0% $360	+5% $550	+10% $741
Rate	-1.0pp $609	-0.5pp $486	base $360	+0.5pp $231	+1.0pp $101

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $123,750
• Closing costs: $14,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
205 Mariners Cir Saint Simons Island, GA	4.0	3.5	2286	$5,700	$2.49	44d	1	0.05mi
111 Gascoigne Ave #204 Saint Simons Island, GA	3.0	2.0	1760	$5,500	$3.12	44d	1	0.11mi
122 Shady Brook Cir #100 Saint Simons Island, GA	3.0	2.0	1500	$4,950	$3.30	44d	1	0.81mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-05
   days on market $495,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $495,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $495,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $495,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $495,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $495,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-04-26
   listed $520,000 Active 1064-char remark
8. 2020-03-26
   historical
9. 2020-02-06
   listed $376,000
10. 2016-06-10
    soldstatus $277,015
11. 2016-02-10
    listed $272,815

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,672 · $223/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,554 · $380/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,882/yr (+$157/mo · 70.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,889
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,728
• − Property taxes: −$2,672
• − Insurance: −$7,594
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,631
• − Management: −$4,631
• − Depreciation: −$14,400
• Taxable loss: −$3,766
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$904
• After-tax cash flow: $5,221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Glynn County
• NCES district ID: 1302400
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,554
• Composite: 33.83/100
• National rank: #5359
• State rank: #47 of 174 in GA

Livability — St. Simons

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Simons, GA
• County: Glynn County · 69,019 people
• Metro: Brunswick, GA
• Population (ZIP): 17,780
• Household income: $108,632
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 339.0

Population outlook (Glynn County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 91,404 people
• By 2030: 94,806 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 100,060 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 103,258 · +13.0%
• By 2075: 107,970 · +18.1%
• By 2100: 103,363 · +13.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Italian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Glynn

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.0) · D 36.8% · R 62.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.6pp toward R · 2008: -23.4pp · 2024: -26.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.0 2020: R+23.2 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+27.0 2008: R+23.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -564.58%
• Current HPI: 191.6942
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Metro: Brunswick, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+81.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $495,000 GIAR
• 2020-03-26 Listing Removed — GIAR
• 2020-02-06 Listed $376,000 GIAR
• 2016-06-10 Sold (MLS) $277,015 GIAR
• 2016-02-10 Listed $272,815 GIAR

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,672 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.