4234 Donnington Dr

Bradenton, FL 34219

$344,995D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,084 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Active · 77 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,908/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax + insurance: −$637
• HOA: −$75
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$611
• Net cashflow: $-223/mo
• Annual: $-2,680/yr
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.77%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $96,599

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $345k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-223 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (15.7% below list).
• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($324k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $291k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#101 in FL, #1,528 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 798 students, 31% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $239k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.6% in Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.