5 bd · 3.0 ba ·
2,587 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Land
· Pending
· 54 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,623/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,831
Tax + insurance
−$326
HOA
−$198
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$551
Net cashflow
$-282/mo
Annual
$-3,386/yr
Cap rate
5.32%
Cash-on-cash
-3.46%
DSCR
0.85
1% rule
0.75%
Cash to close
$97,747
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $349k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-282 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $299k (14.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (24.9% below list).
It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $262k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#269 in FL, #4,409 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Diplomat Elementary School (math 67% / reading 60%, grade B, #564 of 2,144 statewide, top 27%, 1,069 students, 56% FRL); Mariner Middle School (math 50% / reading 47%, grade C-, #274 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 1,001 students, 53% FRL); Ida S. Baker High School (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #223 of 667 statewide, top 34%, 1,933 students, 39% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 846 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.6% in North Fort Myers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,623/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 775% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-M9YN5XB2Q21ZMR
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29