519 S Willow Ave

Sugar Creek, MO 64053

$187,900D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,428 sqft · Built 1947 · SingleFamily · Active · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,298/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$985
• Tax + insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $-143/mo
• Annual: $-1,714/yr
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.26%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $52,612

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $188k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-143 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (13.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (30.9% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $130k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#261 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, commute B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, employment F.
• Independence 30 (suburban): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #252 of 324 in MO (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Abraham Mallinson Elementary (math 20% / reading 34%, grade F, #850 of 1,115 statewide, top 78%, 272 students, 80% FRL); Clifford H. Nowlin Middle (math 13% / reading 29%, grade F, #342 of 391 statewide, top 88%, 875 students, 80% FRL); Van Horn High (math 13% / reading 27%, grade F, #472 of 521 statewide, top 91%, 1,047 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 58% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,002 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (2,271 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jackson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask is 89% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.