519 S Willow Ave · Sugar Creek, MO 64053

$187,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,428 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1947 7,840 sqft lot Est $169k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.3/15.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

coming soon

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1947

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $188k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-137 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (30.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (30.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#261 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, commute B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, employment F.
• Independence 30 (suburban): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #252 of 324 in MO (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Abraham Mallinson Elementary (math 20% / reading 34%, grade F, #850 of 1,115 statewide, top 78%, 272 students, 80% FRL); Clifford H. Nowlin Middle (math 13% / reading 29%, grade F, #342 of 391 statewide, top 88%, 875 students, 80% FRL); Van Horn High (math 13% / reading 27%, grade F, #472 of 521 statewide, top 91%, 1,047 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 58% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,002 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (2,271 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jackson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask is 89% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $130,508 (30.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.12%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $168,504
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
644 S Lake Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+5%)	1mo	$95,000	$63	66
528 S Hardy Ave	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+12%)	2mo	$180,000	$112	64
803 S Cedar Ave	0.44mi	2/1.0	1,554 (+9%)	4mo	$95,000	$61	62
575 Crescent Ave	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,412 (-1%)	5mo	$89,000	$63	60
734 S Hawthorne Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,343 (-6%)	5mo	$150,000	$112	52
107 S Claremont Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,342 (-6%)	3mo	$199,900	$149	48
309 N Cedar Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,550 (+8%)	1mo	$272,000	$175	45
11100 E 11th St S	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,318 (-8%)	2mo	$190,000	$144	44
11225 Felton St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-9%)	2mo	$299,000	$230	44
10126 Golf Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,602 (+12%)	1mo	$149,900	$94	44
909 S Appleton Ave	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,614 (+13%)	6mo	$190,000	$118	42
11214 E 10th St S	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,247 (-13%)	2mo	$210,000	$168	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $93,554
• Equity at exit: $169,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.36×
• Total profit: $282,238
• Equity at exit: $365,048

Cash invested: $52,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64053

• Home prices YoY: 17.9%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,305 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$985
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,251/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $-137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,478

Max offer price $163,711

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-31	-5% $-84	+0% $-137	+5% $-190	+10% $-243
Rent	-10% $-240	-5% $-188	+0% $-137	+5% $-85	+10% $-34
Rate	-1.0pp $-42	-0.5pp $-89	base $-137	+0.5pp $-186	+1.0pp $-235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,975
• Closing costs: $5,637
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10104 E Golf Ave Independence, MO	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,395	$1.16	16d	1	0.52mi
10522 E 10th St S Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	1020	$1,099	$1.08	25d	1	0.55mi
1109 S Appleton Ave Independence, MO	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,195	$1.00	18d	1	0.61mi
11323 E Thompson St Sugar Creek, MO	3.0	2.5	1794	$1,800	$1.00	14d	1	0.68mi
11500 E Anderson St Independence, MO	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,599	$1.33	19d	1	0.72mi
600 S Glenwood Ave Unit G-2 Independence, MO	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,650	$1.03	23d	1	0.75mi
576 S Oxford Ave Independence, MO	3.0	2.0	1098	$1,400	$1.28	45d	1	0.77mi
11601 E US Highway 24 Apt DA Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,400	$1.56	45d	1	0.81mi
182 Novak St Sugar Creek, MO	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,800	$1.33	19d	1	0.85mi
100 S Oxford Ave Independence, MO	3.0	2.0	1141	$1,425	$1.25	46d	1	0.85mi
9528 E Winner Rd Independence, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0	730	$999	$1.37	45d	1	0.85mi
1425 S Northern Blvd Independence, MO	3.0	1.5	1275	$1,200	$0.94	9d	1	0.92mi
1138 S Glenwood Ave Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	1180	$1,095	$0.93	21d	1	0.96mi
11418 E 13th St S Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	1760	$1,100	$0.62	45d	1	1.08mi
10119 E Winner Rd Unit 2 Independence, MO	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,045	$1.04	23d	1	1.10mi
11616 E 16th St S Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	1016	$1,125	$1.11	45d	1	1.31mi
10714 E 19th St S Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	1010	$895	$0.89	5d	1	1.31mi
1810 S Vermont Ave Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	950	$948	$1.00	45d	1	1.41mi
10817 E 19th Ter S Independence, MO	3.0	1.0	1428	$1,801	$1.26	18d	1	1.43mi
10323 E 20th St S Independence, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,400	$1.50	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $187,900 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $187,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $187,900 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $187,900 Coming Soon 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $187,900 Coming Soon 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 11-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $187,900 Coming Soon 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,251 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,823 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$571/yr (+$48/mo · 45.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,661
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,525
• − Property taxes: −$1,251
• − Insurance: −$940
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,253
• − Management: −$1,253
• − Depreciation: −$5,466
• Taxable loss: −$5,027
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,207
• After-tax cash flow: $-437/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Independence 30
• NCES district ID: 2915480
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $41,843
• Composite: 27.04/100
• National rank: #7054
• State rank: #252 of 324 in MO

Livability — Sugar Creek

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #12484

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sugar Creek, MO
• County: Jackson County · 687,798 people
• City population: 3,547
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 6,775
• Household income: $47,285
• Rent vs Own: 47.3% rent · 52.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 330.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 719,589 people
• By 2030: 731,456 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 746,689 · +3.8%
• By 2050: 749,289 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 736,227 · +2.3%
• By 2100: 668,210 · -7.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Black 9% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 12% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: D (+19.3) · D 58.9% · R 39.5% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.1pp toward R · 2008: 25.4pp · 2024: 19.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.3 2020: D+22.0 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+25.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.69%
• Current HPI: 347.9512
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+189.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Coming Soon $187,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-01-27 Listed $99,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-02-25 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-08-11 Listed $64,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-11-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-06-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,251 · -28.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.