880 Tully Rd #13

Houston, TX 77079

$199,000D+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,775 sqft · Built 1982 · Townhouse · Active · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,106/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$441
• HOA: −$268
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-89/mo
• Annual: $-1,063/yr
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.91%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-89 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (7.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $183k (7.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Spring Branch ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #215 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Thornwood El (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 408 students, 88% FRL); Spring Forest Middle (math 39% / reading 44%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 962 students, 56% FRL); Stratford H S (math 52% / reading 59%, grade C, #364 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 2,272 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 235 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $199k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.