13599 Phoenix Dr

New Chapel Hill, TX 75707

$240,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,892/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax + insurance: −$180
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $56/mo
• Annual: $669/yr
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.00%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $67,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $56 ($669/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (21.2% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $189k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,275 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Chapel Hill ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #650 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Chapel Hill J H (math 27% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 502 students, 77% FRL); Chapel Hill H S (math 21% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,063 students, 75% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 189 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.