13599 Phoenix Dr · New Chapel Hill, TX 75707

$240,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1995 2.82 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this well-maintained 1995 manufactured home nestled on approximately 2.82 acres in Chapel Hill ISD! Offering 1,848 sq ft, this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home features a split level floorplan with spacious living and dining areas, ceiling fans throughout, and a walk-in closest in ALL the bedrooms. The primary suite includes double sinks, a soaking tub, and a separate shower. Enjoy vinyl plank flooring in the living room, carpeted bedrooms, a built-in microwave, island, and a laundry room right off the kitchen. A wood-burning fireplace adds warmth and charm. Outdoor features included a ramp entry, 20x10 front porch, a 16x12 screen back porch (added in 2020), a metal roof, and TWO carpo

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Soaking tub
• Primary suite

Tags

• SPLIT LEVEL FLOORPLAN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIMARY SUITE
• SOAKING TUB
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-story mobile home (manufactured); Metal roof
• Construction: Manufactured (mobile) home construction
• Exterior features: Porch; Screened porch; Outbuilding; Storage structure; Accessible entrance; Approximately 2.82 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms with walk-in closet(s)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Walk-in closet(s); Wood-burning fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $56 ($669/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (21.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,275 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Chapel Hill ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #650 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Chapel Hill J H (math 27% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 502 students, 77% FRL); Chapel Hill H S (math 21% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,063 students, 75% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 189 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,159 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.00%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-36,636
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-32,588
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75707

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,892 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $960/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,821

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $192	-5% $124	+0% $56	+5% $-12	+10% $-80
Rent	-10% $-94	-5% $-19	+0% $56	+5% $130	+10% $205
Rate	-1.0pp $177	-0.5pp $117	base $56	+0.5pp $-6	+1.0pp $-70

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $240,000 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $240,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $240,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $240,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-05-22
   listed $240,000 Active
6. 2014-02-14
   soldstatus
7. 2000-04-20
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $960 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,392 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,432/yr (+$286/mo · 357.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,699
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$960
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,816
• − Management: −$1,816
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$3,518
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$844
• After-tax cash flow: $1,514/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chapel Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813650
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,891
• Composite: 24.76/100
• National rank: #7603
• State rank: #650 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Chapel Hill

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1275
• US rank: #22160

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing B- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Smith County · 180,570 people
• City population: 16,355
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,532
• Household income: $84,954
• Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 304.0

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 10% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.97%
• Current HPI: 196.577
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.37%
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $240,000 GTAR
• 2014-02-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-04-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $960 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.