1534 Morgan St

Jacksonville, FL 32209

$429,000C-

8 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,776 sqft · Built 1969 · MultiFamily · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,221/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,250
• Tax + insurance: −$297
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$886
• Net cashflow: $788/mo
• Annual: $9,460/yr
• Cap rate: 8.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.88%
• DSCR: 1.35
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $120,120

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $429k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $788 ($9k/yr) — positive. Per door: $197/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $422k (1.6% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($416k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $416k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 399 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 11 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $310k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,221/mo this rent would consume 166% of the median local household income ($31k/yr) (locally 2921% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.