3712 Arroyo Seco Ln #85

North Highlands, CA 95660

$65,900B+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Built 1966 · Manufactured · Pending · 174 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,644/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$346
• Tax + insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$555
• Net cashflow: $1,634/mo
• Annual: $19,604/yr
• Cap rate: 36.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 106.24%
• DSCR: 5.73
• 1% rule: 4.01%
• Cash to close: $18,452

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $66k. Condition is rated average.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $66k).
• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $58k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $456 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#523 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Twin Rivers Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #970 of 1,400 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Village Elementary (407 students, 91% FRL); Highlands High (744 students, 90% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 110 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 36.0% vs local median 4.1% in North Highlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,644/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($68k/yr) (locally 1300% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Kitchen cabinets — Worn condition
• Minor: Shower curtain rod — Loose and may fall
• Moderate: Exterior siding — Weathered and may need repainting
• Moderate: Hardwood flooring — Worn and may need refinishing
• Moderate: Paint — Faded and may need repainting
• Minor: Blinds — Dusty and may need cleaning