9214-9216 Darby Ct

Stockton, CA 95209

$550,000D

10 bd · 8.0 ba · 2,350 sqft · Built 1980 · MultiFamily · Active · 345 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,717/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax + insurance: −$421
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$991
• Net cashflow: $421/mo
• Annual: $5,054/yr
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.28%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $154,000

Investor read

• This is a 1×2bd/2.0ba + 1×3bd/2.0ba units multifamily listed at $550k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $421 ($5k/yr) — positive. Per door: $211/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $472k (14.2% below list).
• It's been on market 345 days — a 12% lower offer ($484k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $472k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Creekside Elementary (math 12% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,304 of 1,571 statewide, top 84%, 541 students, 83% FRL); Delta Sierra Middle (math 9% / reading 23%, grade F, #452 of 498 statewide, top 91%, 595 students, 93% FRL); Bear Creek High (math 30% / reading 44%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 1,937 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 59% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,717/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($109k/yr) (locally 719% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 345 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?