9214-9216 Darby Ct · Stockton, CA 95209

$550,000

10 bd · 8.0 ba · 2,350 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 345 Days on market

Built 1980 0.26 ac lot $234/sqft · waterfront premium Est $521k · 6% over · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Unique opportunity in Stockton! Always wanted to own a rental income property? That time is now. Put your investor skills to the test by purchasing the small scale rental duplex today. Tenants are in place on both sides. One side of the duplex is a two bedroom two bath rental and the other side is a three bedroom two bath rental. Each of the units have an enclosed side and backyard making this a very private location! Shown by appointment only with the tenants.

Key facts

• Private location
• 0.26 acre lot
• Built 1980

Tags

• RENTAL INCOME PROPERTY
• SMALL SCALE RENTAL DUPLEX
• ENCLOSED SIDE AND BACKYARD
• PRIVATE LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1×2bd/2.0ba + 1×3bd/2.0ba units multifamily listed at $550k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $421 ($5k/yr) — positive. Per door: $211/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $472k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $472k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Creekside Elementary (math 12% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,304 of 1,571 statewide, top 84%, 541 students, 83% FRL); Delta Sierra Middle (math 9% / reading 23%, grade F, #452 of 498 statewide, top 91%, 595 students, 93% FRL); Bear Creek High (math 30% / reading 44%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 1,937 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 59% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,717/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($109k/yr) (locally 719% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 345 days — a 12% lower offer ($484k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $471,700 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 345 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
10. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
11. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
12. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
13. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
14. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.28%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $521,177
• List price: $550,000
• Delta: 5.53%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-63,053
• Equity at exit: $82,007

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-23,448
• Equity at exit: $47,554

Cash invested: $154,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95209

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 20.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,717 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,302/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$991
• Net cashflow: $421

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,184

Max offer price $550,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $733	-5% $577	+0% $421	+5% $266	+10% $110
Rent	-10% $49	-5% $235	+0% $421	+5% $608	+10% $794
Rate	-1.0pp $698	-0.5pp $561	base $421	+0.5pp $279	+1.0pp $134

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	2	2	$2,282
1× unit	3	2	$2,435
Total (2 units)			$4,717

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,500
• Closing costs: $16,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on marketlisting id $550,000 Active 345 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $550,000 Active 343 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $550,000 Active 342 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $550,000 Active 341 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $550,000 Active 339 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $550,000 Active 336 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $550,000 Active 335 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $550,000 Active 334 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $550,000 Active 333 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $550,000 Active 330 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $550,000 Active 329 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $550,000 Active 328 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $550,000 Active 327 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $550,000 Active 326 DOM
15. 2025-11-12
    status Active 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    Unique opportunity in Stockton! Always wanted to own a rental income property? That time is now. Put your investor skills to the test by purchasing the small scale rental duplex today. Tenants are in place on both sides. One side of the duplex is a two bedroom two bath rental and the other side is a three bedroom two bath rental. Each of the units have an enclosed side and backyard making this a very private location! Shown by appointment only with the tenants.

16. 2025-11-12
    status Active 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    Unique opportunity in Stockton! Always wanted to own a rental income property? That time is now. Put your investor skills to the test by purchasing the small scale rental duplex today. Tenants are in place on both sides. One side of the duplex is a two bedroom two bath rental and the other side is a three bedroom two bath rental. Each of the units have an enclosed side and backyard making this a very private location! Shown by appointment only with the tenants.

17. 2025-10-22
    historical 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    Unique opportunity in Stockton! Always wanted to own a rental income property? That time is now. Put your investor skills to the test by purchasing the small scale rental duplex today. Tenants are in place on both sides. One side of the duplex is a two bedroom two bath rental and the other side is a three bedroom two bath rental. Each of the units have an enclosed side and backyard making this a very private location! Shown by appointment only with the tenants.

18. 2025-10-21
    historical 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    Unique opportunity in Stockton! Always wanted to own a rental income property? That time is now. Put your investor skills to the test by purchasing the small scale rental duplex today. Tenants are in place on both sides. One side of the duplex is a two bedroom two bath rental and the other side is a three bedroom two bath rental. Each of the units have an enclosed side and backyard making this a very private location! Shown by appointment only with the tenants.

19. 2025-06-18
    listed $550,000 Active 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    Unique opportunity in Stockton! Always wanted to own a rental income property? That time is now. Put your investor skills to the test by purchasing the small scale rental duplex today. Tenants are in place on both sides. One side of the duplex is a two bedroom two bath rental and the other side is a three bedroom two bath rental. Each of the units have an enclosed side and backyard making this a very private location! Shown by appointment only with the tenants.

20. 2025-06-18
    listed $550,000 Active 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    Unique opportunity in Stockton! Always wanted to own a rental income property? That time is now. Put your investor skills to the test by purchasing the small scale rental duplex today. Tenants are in place on both sides. One side of the duplex is a two bedroom two bath rental and the other side is a three bedroom two bath rental. Each of the units have an enclosed side and backyard making this a very private location! Shown by appointment only with the tenants.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,302 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,180 · $348/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,878/yr (+$157/mo · 81.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 24 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,604
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,809
• − Property taxes: −$2,302
• − Insurance: −$2,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,528
• − Management: −$4,528
• − Depreciation: −$16,000
• Taxable loss: −$4,313
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,035
• After-tax cash flow: $6,089/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 47,409
• Household income: $108,675
• Rent vs Own: 25.9% rent · 74.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 719.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% White 25% Two or more races 23% Asian 22% Black 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Tagalog/Filipino 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -430.80%
• Current HPI: 259.8452
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.89%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-12 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-11-12 Relisted — MLSListings
• 2025-10-22 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-10-21 Listing Removed — MLSListings
• 2025-06-18 Listed $550,000 MLSListings
• 2025-06-18 Listed $550,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,302 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.