514 Brigham Rd

Dunkirk, NY 14048

$40,000B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,633 sqft · Built 1903 · SingleFamily · Pending · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,194/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax + insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $639/mo
• Annual: $7,666/yr
• Cap rate: 25.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.45%
• DSCR: 4.05
• 1% rule: 2.99%
• Cash to close: $11,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $639 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $39k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($277 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#426 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dunkirk City School District (town): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1903 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $28k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 25.5% vs local median 7.4% in Dunkirk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1903 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.