514 Brigham Rd · Dunkirk, NY 14048

$40,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,633 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1903 7,898 sqft lot $24/sqft · 78% below area ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * Seller offering $1,000 to purchaser with accepted offer towards purchaser's closing costs!!! * * * Home has new windows; newer roof; updated kitchen and bath. Newer covered rear deck. 1st floor laundry is in bathroom. Blacktop driveway. Nice location, close to everything! Bedrooms need paint and paper.

Key facts

• 7,898 sq ft lot
• Built 1903
• Listed 30 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: 2-story existing structure; Resale fixer condition
• Construction: Block and poured foundation; Block, concrete and vinyl siding construction; Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Covered porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Water heater listed (additional appliances noted as 'See Remarks')
• Bedrooms: Total of 7 rooms including living areas and laundry (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heating details listed as 'See Remarks'
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Separate/formal living room; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $639 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.5% vs local median 7.4% in Dunkirk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#426 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dunkirk City School District (town): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($277 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $28k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1903 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $39,400 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1903 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.45%
• DSCR: 4.05
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,260
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -77.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 Taft Pl	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,618 (-1%)	3mo	$160,000	$99	84
423 Robin St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,618 (-1%)	12mo	$197,000	$122	70
121 W Seventh St	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,496 (-8%)	11mo	$190,000	$127	66
69 W 5th St	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,546 (-5%)	7mo	$66,950	$43	64
412 Dove St	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,704 (+4%)	13mo	$125,000	$73	60
88 W 4th St	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,852 (+13%)	2mo	$125,000	$67	58
416 Robin St	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,436 (-12%)	9mo	$137,800	$96	57
717 Roosevelt Ave	0.33mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,499 (-8%)	10mo	$171,000	$114	56
606 Swan St	0.49mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,544 (-6%)	11mo	$135,000	$87	54
31 W Lucas Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,812 (+11%)	2mo	$95,000	$52	47
217 Willow Rd	0.65mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,530 (-6%)	14mo	$120,000	$78	43
52 W 5th St	0.42mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,403 (-14%)	18mo	$137,694	$98	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 74.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.45×
• Total profit: $49,786
• Equity at exit: $22,499

10-year hold

• IRR: 72.9%
• Equity multiple: 11.31×
• Total profit: $115,475
• Equity at exit: $38,693

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14048

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,194 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $937/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $639

Break-even live

Break-even rent $385

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-29
   listed $40,000 Active 938-char remark
2. 2006-10-30
   soldstatus $28,000 312-char remark

   Show marketing remark (312 chars)

   * * Seller offering $1,000 to purchaser with accepted offer towards purchaser's closing costs!!! * * * Home has new windows; newer roof; updated kitchen and bath. Newer covered rear deck. 1st floor laundry is in bathroom. Blacktop driveway. Nice location, close to everything! Bedrooms need paint and paper.

3. 2006-06-08
   listed $30,000 312-char remark

   Show marketing remark (312 chars)

   * * Seller offering $1,000 to purchaser with accepted offer towards purchaser's closing costs!!! * * * Home has new windows; newer roof; updated kitchen and bath. Newer covered rear deck. 1st floor laundry is in bathroom. Blacktop driveway. Nice location, close to everything! Bedrooms need paint and paper.

4. 2005-09-12
   listed $49,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $937 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $937 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,330
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$937
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,146
• − Management: −$1,146
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $7,496
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,799
• After-tax cash flow: $5,867/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dunkirk City School District
• NCES district ID: 3609420
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,345
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7190
• State rank: #575 of 590 in NY

Livability — Dunkirk

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #426
• US rank: #7421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dunkirk, NY
• City population: 14,949
• Population (ZIP): 14,949

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 25% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 20% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.93%
• Current HPI: 325.9188
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-19.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $40,000 UNYREIS
• 2006-10-30 Sold (MLS) $28,000 UNYREIS
• 2006-06-08 Listed $30,000 UNYREIS
• 2005-09-12 Listed $49,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $937 · -31.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.