1011 Pebble Dr

Buchanan Dam, TX 78609

$125,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,221/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $182/mo
• Annual: $2,184/yr
• Cap rate: 8.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.24%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $182 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (2.3% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $122k (2.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $964 appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#813 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Burnet CISD (rural): math 36% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #465 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 0.6% in Buchanan Dam — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.