1011 Pebble Dr · Buchanan Dam, TX 78609

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1950 0.51 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in a quiet and peaceful neighborhood, this beautiful half-acre property offers the perfect opportunity to create your ideal lake retreat or forever home. Enjoy lake access from the private neighborhood park, complete with boat ramp, and scenic lake views in a serene setting surrounded by mature trees and established homes. The property features a detached garage with plenty of space for vehicles, boats, storage, or a workshop. A small existing home sits on the lot and is ready for a complete renovation or could be removed to make way for new construction. Whether you’re looking for an investment opportunity, weekend getaway, or the perfect site to build your dream home, this p

Key facts

• Scenic lake views
• Complete renovation
• Lake access

Tags

• LAKE ACCESS
• PRIVATE NEIGHBORHOOD PARK
• BOAT RAMP
• SCENIC LAKE VIEWS
• DETACHED GARAGE
• COMPLETE RENOVATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Pebble Beach subdivision; Directions available to property
• HOA & community: Community amenities include park and water

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Other sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Single-story home
• Construction: Built with asbestos-containing materials; Other construction materials noted
• Exterior features: No fencing; Irregular lot shape; Park and water access in the community

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No central cooling listed
• Interior features: One-story layout; Has view

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $182 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (2.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (2.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 0.6% in Buchanan Dam — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#813 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Burnet CISD (rural): math 36% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #465 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $964 appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,119 (2.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.24%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $335,040
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
184 S Summit Trl	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,000 (+4%)	12mo	$349,000	$349	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.77% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $12,501
• Equity at exit: $41,190

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $47,455
• Equity at exit: $53,609

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78609

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,221 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $902/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $991

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    remarks 693-char remark
14. 2026-05-31
    listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $902 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,385/yr (+$115/mo · 153.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,654
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$902
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,172
• − Management: −$1,172
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $144
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$35
• After-tax cash flow: $2,149/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burnet CISD
• NCES district ID: 4812220
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,890
• Composite: 32.09/100
• National rank: #5811
• State rank: #465 of 826 in TX

Livability — Buchanan Dam

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #813
• US rank: #14766

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buchanan Dam, TX
• City population: 1,826
• Population (ZIP): 1,826

Population outlook (Llano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,847 people
• By 2030: 21,350 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 22,281 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 23,173 · +11.2%
• By 2075: 25,526 · +22.4%
• By 2100: 25,866 · +24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Llano

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -52.2pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+60.1 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+60.4 2008: R+52.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.77%
• Current HPI: 197.8559
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $125,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 1997-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $902 · +14.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.