3305 Thomas St

Jacksonville, FL 32254

$222,990D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,253 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,396/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,169
• Tax + insurance: −$372
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $-438/mo
• Annual: $-5,254/yr
• Cap rate: 3.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.42%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $62,437

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $223k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-438 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (28.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (37.4% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (37.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $223k implies a 2687% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $1,396/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 882% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.