227 46TH St

Union City, NJ 07087

$675,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · — sqft · Built — · MultiFamily · Under Contract · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,288/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,540
• Tax + insurance: −$1,125
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,110
• Net cashflow: $-487/mo
• Annual: $-5,847/yr
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.09%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $189,000

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $675k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-487 ($-6k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-244/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $604k (10.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $529k (21.7% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($665k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $529k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $72k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $68k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#117 in NJ, #2,998 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: cost of living F.
• Union City School District (suburban): math 15% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #399 of 472 in NJ (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Theodore Roosevelt Elementary School (math 12% / reading 31%, grade F, #973 of 1,303 statewide, top 75%, 919 students, 89% FRL); Union Hill Middle School (math 18% / reading 40%, grade F, #321 of 431 statewide, top 77%, 849 students, 91% FRL); Union City High School (math 12% / reading 35%, grade F, #331 of 399 statewide, top 83%, 3,025 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools at 88% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 228 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,310 units permitted in Hudson County in 2024 (4,154 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hudson County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$116k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.3% in Union City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,288/mo this rent would consume 99% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 6042% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Kitchen appliances — Old and worn, need replacement.
• Major: Bathroom fixtures — Outdated and in poor condition.
• Major: Flooring — Worn and in need of replacement.
• Major: Interior walls — Paint peeling and cracks need repair.
• Major: Exterior siding — Peeling and in need of repainting.
• Major: Windows — Paint peeling and need replacement.