48 Horton Dr

Viola, NY 10952

$955,000B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,356 sqft · Built 2008 · Condo · Active · 115 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $12,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,008
• Tax + insurance: −$1,110
• HOA: −$398
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,520
• Net cashflow: $2,964/mo
• Annual: $35,570/yr
• Cap rate: 10.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.30%
• DSCR: 1.59
• 1% rule: 1.26%
• Cash to close: $267,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $955k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($36k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $955k).
• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($869k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $869k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $29k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,025 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Ramapo Central School District (Spring Valley) (suburban): math 22% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #576 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 429 units permitted in Rockland County in 2024 (231 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rockland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $646k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $267k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 0.4% in Viola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.