48 Horton Dr · Viola, NY 10952

$955,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,356 sqft · Condo public records · 112 Days on market

Built 2008 $285/sqft · 31% below area Est $1392k · 31% under $398/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This condo-style home features four bedrooms, two full baths, a formal dining room, an eat-in kitchen, and a one-car garage. The information provided is estimated to the best of our abilities at this time.

Key facts

• $398 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2008

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $955k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($36k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $955k).
• Recommended offer: $869k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 0.4% in Viola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,025 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Ramapo Central School District (Spring Valley) (suburban): math 22% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #576 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 429 units permitted in Rockland County in 2024 (231 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $29k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rockland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $267k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($869k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $646k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $869,050 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.30%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,392,269
• List price: $955,000
• Delta: -31.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $34,168
• Equity at exit: $142,394

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $273,376
• Equity at exit: $82,571

Cash invested: $267,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10952

• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,008
• Tax from tax record: −$712 /mo · $8,541/yr
• Insurance: −$398
• HOA: −$398
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,520
• Net cashflow: $2,964

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,248

Max offer price $955,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3,505	-5% $3,234	+0% $2,964	+5% $2,694	+10% $2,424
Rent	-10% $2,016	-5% $2,490	+0% $2,964	+5% $3,438	+10% $3,912
Rate	-1.0pp $3,445	-0.5pp $3,207	base $2,964	+0.5pp $2,717	+1.0pp $2,465

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $238,750
• Closing costs: $28,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9 E Stemmer Ln Suffern, NY	5.0	3.0	2432	$12,000	$4.93	2d	1	0.72mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $398 · $4,776/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $955,000 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $955,000 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $955,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $955,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $955,000 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $955,000 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $955,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $955,000 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $955,000 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $955,000 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $955,000 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $955,000 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $955,000 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $955,000 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-02-25
    listed $955,000 Active 205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (205 chars)

    This condo-style home features four bedrooms, two full baths, a formal dining room, an eat-in kitchen, and a one-car garage. The information provided is estimated to the best of our abilities at this time.

16. 2025-11-20
    soldstatus $645,671
17. 2012-03-06
    soldstatus $445,000
18. 2010-03-29
    soldstatus $3,565,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,541 · $712/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,340 · $1,028/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,799/yr (+$317/mo · 44.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $144,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$53,495
• − Property taxes: −$8,541
• − Insurance: −$4,775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,520
• − Management: −$11,520
• − HOA: −$4,776
• − Depreciation: −$27,782
• Taxable income: $21,591
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,182
• After-tax cash flow: $30,388/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Ramapo Central School District (Spring Valley)
• NCES district ID: 3627810
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,547
• Composite: 25.6/100
• National rank: #7418
• State rank: #576 of 590 in NY

Livability — Viola

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1025
• US rank: #19972

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Viola, NY
• Population (ZIP): 47,169

Population outlook (Rockland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 339,642 people
• By 2030: 345,987 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 357,178 · +5.2%
• By 2050: 362,456 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 367,281 · +8.1%
• By 2100: 328,211 · -3.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Italian 5% Hispanic 5%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · German/W. Germanic 55% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Rockland

• 2024 margin: R (+11.8) · D 44.1% · R 55.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: 5.9pp · 2024: -11.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.8 2020: D+1.7 2016: D+5.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+5.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -671.35%
• Current HPI: 399.2068
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-73.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Listed $955,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $645,671 Public Records
• 2012-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $445,000 Public Records
• 2010-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $3,565,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,541 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.